Climate Change Impacts on Maharashtra Agriculture
What are the likely impacts of soaring temperatures and increased rainfall on these rural farmers?
Maharashtra faces an increasing risk from climate change which is likely to impact the production of four major crops – Soybean, Cotton, Wheat, and Gram, grown in the State, according to a study by the Institute for Sustainable Communities. The report titled “Climate Change Impacts on Maharashtra Agriculture” examined the week-wise 30-year averages of historical (covering the years 1989-2018) and predicted (protecting the years 2021- 2050) rainfall and temperature data for eight districts across Khandesh, Marathwada, and Vidarbha regions of the state.
“The analysis presented in this report maps climate modeling and projections (both historical and futuristic), with crop phenology (optimal conditions across each of the growing stages for a crop) coupled with community-based participatory assessments (on-ground farmer validation) at a granular ‘weekly’ scale to weave a comprehensive understanding of the likely impacts of climate change on each of the crops and the farmers,” said Romit Sen, Associate Director – Water & Agriculture Program at ISC.
“Climate analysis predicts mismatch in rainfall and temperature patterns with crop phenology across the monsoon (kharif) and winter (rabi) season,” added Sen, who led the research at ISC. The late onset of monsoon and intermittent dry and wet spells has impacted the germination of soybean and cotton. Excess rainfall during the mid-kharif season will increase fungal diseases, weeds, and pests. This is likely to impact the production of pods in soybean and boll formation in cotton. Additionally, water-logged soils and humid conditions will promote rot, leading to a loss of soil nutrients and fertilizers from the soil. The overall impact of excessive rainfall during the fruit formation and maturity stage for both the kharif crops studied – soybean, and cotton will affect the yield and quality of the produce.
The biggest challenge for wheat cultivation in the years to come is high temperatures during grain ripening. Grain weight decreases with a temperature rise, and temperatures during grain filling are predicted to increase. Gram cultivation will see a sudden increase in temperatures during
pod filling, causing pods to fill less.
“There is very little, or almost no rainfall predicted for the rabi season, thereby making the crops entirely dependent on irrigation. With groundwater being the primary water source for irrigation, the pressure on groundwater aquifers will increase. Reducing the impacts of changing climate on agriculture will require efforts in generating granular climate data, integrating those into informing farming decisions, improving the quality of inputs, enhancing knowledge on better cultivation practices, and adoption of better management practices for resource conservation, amongst others, said Vivek P. Adhia, Country Director-India, Institute for Sustainable Communities.
The impact of high temperatures, rainfall, and humidity will make outdoor work difficult for the farmers. In addition, increased incidences of heat stress and humidity will affect farming operations like weeding and harvesting. As part of its work with farmers in Maharashtra, ISC is working to promote sustainable cultivation practices, building an understanding of the likely impacts of climate change, and improving resilience for farming communities.